Climate change is one of the most potentially influential issues affecting our planet. The uncertainties surrounding the effects that it may have on different regions of the world render it important to explore where the greatest risks will be to natural and human systems.

This study has focused on the livelihoods of communities living in the proximity of
forests in the province of Aceh, on the Indonesian island of Sumatra. The study was
designed to assess the most important factors, including both environmental and human induced, that will affect livelihoods for forest dwelling people in the region.

This involved critically examining climate literature and visiting the region to undertake community interviews.

Climate models used by the IPCC have shown that Northern Sumatra will have an increase in temperature of 2 -2.5oC by 2099 and an increase of 0-5% precipitation in the same period. Whilst this could have an impact on the forests of Aceh, it is less significant than the predictions made for the Southern and Eastern regions of Indonesia.

A lack of specific regional data makes it difficult to assess how any changes in climate will affect communities living in forests in the region.

Evidence has been produced that highlights the importance of tree crops and specifically smallholder rubber plantations as a livelihoods strategy for those living in or near forests in Aceh. Rubber plantations account for 62.5% of the plantation area in the region. An analysis of the sustainability of rubber plantations has shown that it can be sustained into
the future with few economic or environmental threats. There is also little evidence to show that it will be affected by climate change.

This study has drawn on the information available about livelihoods in Aceh and
expanded on this with the use of community interviews. The results defined what the
priorities for both development donors and communities are in order to sustain people’s
livelihoods in the future.

It is concluded that there is unsupported objective evidence for development donors to
invest in climate change related projects in the region. The priorities for communities in the region are to address issues surrounding land tenure and focus on the improvement and ‘future proofing’ of infrastructure in the region in order to support the livelihoods of forest communities.

It is crucially important for future research to create regionally specific climate predictions in order to fully assess the impacts that a changing climate could have on livelihoods. Research needs to compare information found in this study with more remote communities in the region to assess any differences in vulnerabilities.